2008-12-03

Black Swan Events


No idea the source on this, but interesting stock market analysis:

There have been 14,284 trading days since January 1, 1950.  On 33 of those days, the market fell 4% or more.  On 35 of those days, the market rallied 4% or more.  So there have been 68 moves out of 14,284, showing such days are very rare occurring just 0.4% of the time.  Leming goes on to point out that 28 of those 68 rare events occurred over the last three months.  That's a whopping 41% of all these very rare (Black Swan??) events since September. 

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