2008-09-17

Money Supply and Oil

So the dollar has had a huge correction lately (see my holdings of Gold and international bonds - ouch). And Oil has come back down even more dramatically. This large movement seems highly correlated, at least contemporarily, with the rapid disappearance of credit in the US and collapse of banking institutions. If there's a huge credit squeeze, then that would seem to imply that 1) demand should lower, and 2) dollar should strengthen. The latter may be significantly important. If other economies believe that we have less abundant credit, then our creditworthiness should increase - meaning our currency should have more relative value.

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